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    2025-26 Fantasy Hockey Goalie and Team Win Projections

    1088 words · 6 min read

    As the 2025-26 fantasy hockey season approaches, NHL.com’s latest projections for goalie and team wins are making waves among fantasy managers. These numbers, rooted in historical performance, anticipated workloads, and evolving team dynamics, provide a crucial edge for those plotting their draft boards and in-season moves. Let’s break down what these projections mean for your fantasy strategy, highlight the top names to target or fade, and uncover the hidden gems that could swing your league.

    What’s New & Why It Matters

    This year’s projections spotlight several shifts in the fantasy landscape. Connor Hellebuyck of Winnipeg stands out with a league-leading 39 projected wins, cementing his status as the premier goaltending anchor. Dallas’s Jake Oettinger and Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy are close behind with 37 wins apiece, signaling stability atop the goalie rankings. On the team side, both the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights are forecasted for 50 wins, positioning their rosters as prime fantasy territory. Conversely, the Boston Bruins are pegged for a notable decline, with just 31 wins projected, raising red flags for those considering heavy investment in their roster.

    These projections are more than just numbers—they reflect anticipated usage rates, team defensive structures, and the likelihood of goalies earning the all-important crease time. For fantasy managers, understanding these nuances can be the difference between a league-winning pick and a midseason scramble for help in the blue paint.

    Fantasy Implications

    Points-Only

    In points-only formats, targeting goalies with high win projections is a tried-and-true strategy. Hellebuyck’s 39 projected wins make him a top-tier selection, especially given Winnipeg’s continued defensive commitment. Oettinger and Vasilevskiy offer similar floors, but managers should be mindful of any shifts in their teams’ defensive depth or backup usage that could eat into their starts. Team stacking with Carolina skaters, given their 50-win outlook, can also yield dividends—especially if you can secure both their starting goalie and top offensive contributors.

    Categories / Bangers

    For those in multi-category or banger leagues, win projections are just one piece of the puzzle. Adin Hill’s 33-win projection for Vegas makes him a sneaky value, especially if he can rack up shutouts and keep his save percentage strong. Sergei Bobrovsky, with 34 projected wins, remains a volatile but high-upside play—particularly if Florida’s defensive structure holds. Managers should also consider workload: goalies on teams with strong defensive metrics but less offensive punch may see more shots and, by extension, more opportunities for saves (and categories points), even if their win totals lag behind the elite tier.

    Dynasty / Keeper

    In long-term formats, projected wins help identify foundational pieces, but age and contract security matter just as much. Hellebuyck’s durability and Winnipeg’s commitment to him make him a dynasty stalwart. Oettinger is entering his prime on a Dallas team built for sustained success, while Hill could emerge as a value keeper if he cements the starter’s role in Vegas. Conversely, declining team projections for Boston may signal a sell-high window on their veteran assets.

    Who to Add / Stream / Watch

    • Connor Hellebuyck (WPG): Clear #1 in projected wins—anchor for any roster.
    • Jake Oettinger (DAL): Reliable volume and team support; safe high-end starter.
    • Adin Hill (VGK): 33 projected wins; excellent late-round or streaming target if he holds the crease.
    • Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA): 34-win projection; buy-low or trade target if he starts slow.
    • Frederik Andersen (CAR): Carolina’s 50-win projection boosts his ceiling; monitor health and workload splits.
    • Logan Thompson (VGK): If Hill falters or is injured, Thompson could inherit a top-10 win total.
    • Jeremy Swayman (BOS): Monitor for value if Boston outperforms their conservative projection.
    • Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR): Handcuff or deep-league stash in case of Andersen injury on a top team.

    Fantasy Takeaways

    • Prioritize goalies with high win projections in both points-only and categories leagues—especially Hellebuyck, Oettinger, and Vasilevskiy.
    • Stack players from teams with high win totals (Carolina, Vegas) for maximum upside across positions.
    • Monitor sleeper and backup situations—Hill and Thompson in Vegas, Kochetkov in Carolina—where team context could elevate a lesser-known name.
    • Exercise caution with Boston skaters and goalies, as their projected decline may limit both wins and peripheral category value.
    • Don’t overlook trade opportunities for mid-tier starters like Bobrovsky, especially if their teams heat up after a slow start.

    Source: NHL.com (2025-10-03). See the original for full details.

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