Five Forwards Poised for Goal-Scoring Rebounds
Five Forwards Poised for Goal-Scoring Rebounds (and a Few to Sell High)
Not every cold streak is a red flag. Sometimes a forward is doing almost everything right for fantasy—piling up shots, holding prime roles at even strength and on the power play—while the goals stubbornly refuse to follow. That’s usually not a talent problem; it’s variance. When you spot those gaps between process and results, you get a window to buy low before the box scores catch up.
On the flip side, a few skaters are cashing in at an unsustainably high clip. They’re still good players, but expecting their early goal pace to hold all year is asking for trouble. Let’s walk through five volume shooters who look due for more goals, plus a few early-season overperformers you might want to quietly shop while their value is inflated.
What’s New & Why It Matters
The headline group of underachievers starts with Nazem Kadri of the Calgary Flames, who is firing a heavy number of pucks but finishing far below his usual rate. For a veteran with a long track record as a reliable goal scorer, that combination of high volume and poor conversion screams “positive regression coming.”
Joining Kadri on the “due for more” list are:
- Nikolaj Ehlers, settling into a scoring role for the Carolina Hurricanes with strong recent production that still undershoots his chance generation.
- J.T. Miller of the New York Rangers, who started the season with a weirdly low shooting rate given his role and has already started to correct upward.
- Quinton Byfield, centering the top line and power play for the Los Angeles Kings, pushing 20+ minutes most nights with far fewer goals than his shot generation suggests.
- Jonathan Marchessault on the Nashville Predators, stuck in a nasty dry spell despite steady usage and a recent 40+ goal season on his résumé.
On the other side, a trio of forwards is converting at wildly high clips: Martin Necas with the Colorado Avalanche, Tyler Bertuzzi on the Chicago Blackhawks, and Kiefer Sherwood with the Vancouver Canucks. They’re all helping right now, but the gap between expected and actual goals suggests their current scoring pace is unlikely to last all season.
For fantasy managers, that split is pure leverage: buy into strong process at a discount, and consider selling small-sample heaters before they inevitably cool.
Fantasy Implications
Points-Only
In points-only formats, the story is simple: goals and assists rule everything. Kadri is the prototype buy-low here. He’s still piling up shots and playing heavy minutes in key situations. That profile almost never stays quiet for long, making him an ideal trade target if his manager is staring at the goal column and getting impatient.
Ehlers fits a similar mold, but with a bit more “sneaky upside.” After a slow adjustment to his new team, he’s producing at a point-per-game pace over his recent stretch while still leaving a little on the table in terms of finishing. If he sticks in a top-six role with power-play exposure—and potentially grabs more time with Sebastian Aho-type talent—there’s room for him to outproduce his current reputation.
Miller is more expensive to acquire, given his strong multi-category profile and heavy deployment, but he remains a worthwhile trade target if his season-to-date shooting percentage still lags behind his career norm in your league’s interface. Byfield is the breakout swing: top-line center, top-unit power play, and the underlying profile of a 30-goal scorer who hasn’t fully cashed in yet. In many leagues he’s still priced as more “interesting prospect” than “core scorer.”
Marchessault is the wild card. He’s clearly frustrated and stuck in a prolonged slump, but the usage and history suggest he’s more unlucky than cooked. In shallow leagues, he might be sitting on waivers; in deeper points-only setups, he’s the kind of post-slump add who can deliver a burst of mid-season value.
On the sell-high side, Necas, Bertuzzi and Sherwood are worth at least testing in trade talks if your league over-rewards goal scoring. None of them should be dumped, but if you can flip unsustainably high shooting for more bankable rest-of-season production, that’s sharp portfolio management.
Categories / Bangers
In multi-cat formats, poor finishing hurts less when the peripherals are still strong. Kadri and Miller remain excellent targets because their shot volume alone stabilizes your SOG category while you wait for the goals to catch up. Both can also chip in with hits, power-play points and the occasional penalty minutes, giving you a multi-column floor even when the puck won’t cooperate.
Byfield is especially appealing in categories and bangers leagues. Top-line centers who play big minutes in all situations tend to pick up a bit of everything—faceoffs, shots, occasional hits, and strong plus-minus when their team is pushing play. Even if the goals come in streaks, the all-around stat line keeps him in your lineup.
Ehlers and Marchessault are more scoring-centric but still carry enough shot volume to help in SOG and PPP. They’re ideal for managers who are slightly behind in goals and power-play points but don’t want to sacrifice too much in other categories.
Among the overperformers, Sherwood stands out in bangers formats. Even if his goal pace regresses hard, his physical game—especially his hit totals—keeps him fantasy relevant in deeper leagues that reward grit. Bertuzzi offers a similar “ride it while it lasts” profile: when he’s hot he can swing weeks with goals and PIM, but he’s historically streaky. Necas is more of a classic skill scorer; if your league heavily weights goals, he’s a candidate to sell high for a more stable multi-cat asset.
Dynasty / Keeper
In long-term leagues, context and trend matter more than short-term slumps. Byfield is the clear headliner: a young center already trusted with top-line and top-unit power-play work. Even if his finishing runs hot and cold this season, the underlying usage screams “future anchor.” Any buy-low window here is precious.
Necas also demands attention. His current goal pace is almost certainly unsustainable, but the fact he’s producing so efficiently alongside elite talent is a good long-term sign. If you can swap him for a slightly more bankable scorer with a similar age and role, that’s defensible—but there’s also nothing wrong with simply enjoying the ride and treating him as a core piece.
Kadri, Ehlers and Marchessault are more win-now pieces in most dynasty setups. They’re ideal targets for contenders looking to capitalize on poor surface stats without paying full name-brand cost. For rebuilders, they can function as short-term producers you flip later for futures once the regression hits and the raw numbers look better.
Sherwood and Bertuzzi are more situational; their long-term value is tied to roles that may fluctuate. In deep dynasty bangers leagues, Sherwood’s hit volume can be a long-lasting asset, but you should budget for much more modest goal totals than his current pace suggests.
Who to Add / Stream / Watch
- Nazem Kadri – Trade target (all formats): Elite shot volume plus a long history of scoring make him a classic buy-low on depressed percentages.
- Nikolaj Ehlers – Add or trade target (standard/deep): Settling into a scoring role with strong recent production that still has room to grow.
- J.T. Miller – Premium trade target (all formats): Multi-cat monster whose early inefficiency is already correcting; worth overpaying a little for.
- Quinton Byfield – Add in all but the shallowest leagues: Top-line center with 30-goal upside and across-the-board contributions.
- Jonathan Marchessault – Deep-league add / buy-low: Slump plus new team equals discount; usage and track record still point to a mid-season bounce.
- Martin Necas – Sell-high candidate (goals-heavy leagues): Fantastic player, but his current finishing rate is unlikely to hold all year.
- Tyler Bertuzzi – Short-term hold then shop: Ride the heater, then explore trades before the inevitable cold stretch hits.
- Kiefer Sherwood – Bangers add / watchlist: Hit machine who’ll stay useful even when the goals slow down in deeper multi-cat formats.
Fantasy Takeaways
- Target high-volume shooters like Kadri, Ehlers and Byfield whose goal totals lag behind their opportunity and historical conversion.
- Use multi-cat stars such as Miller to anchor categories builds while you exploit short-term slumps for trade discounts.
- Treat Necas, Bertuzzi and Sherwood as useful pieces, but be realistic about how far their current shooting efficiency can stretch.
- In dynasty, focus on young centers and wingers whose roles are expanding, even if their early-season percentages are noisy.
- When in doubt, trust process over short-term results—shots, usage and deployment tell you more than a small-sample goal column.
Source: ESPN.com. See the original for full details.