Goalie Risers and Fallers: Deployment Winners, Losers and Your Next Moves

Goaltending is all about opportunity and leash length, and a few recent shifts have created clear deployment winners and losers. Injuries and cold streaks have opened doors for some netminders while slamming them on others. Here’s how the changing landscape for Alex Lyon, Elvis Merzlikins, Nikita Tolopilo, Mackenzie Blackwood and Sergei Bobrovsky should change your fantasy strategy.

What’s New & Why It Matters

The most important development is the rise of Alex Lyon with the Buffalo Sabres. With Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen sidelined, Lyon isn’t just spot-starting; he’s functioning as the primary starter. More starts plus solid play equals a rare mid-season goalie add who can actually move the needle in all formats.

Elvis Merzlikins has heated up for the Columbus Blue Jackets, stabilizing their crease and fueling a playoff push. His role hasn’t fundamentally changed—he was already the primary guy—but his recent form makes him a much more attractive short-term play. Fantasy managers need to time this kind of heater correctly: ride it while it lasts, but don’t treat it as guaranteed rest-of-season security.

In Vancouver, Nikita Tolopilo has taken advantage of injury issues to earn fill-in starts for the Vancouver Canucks. His current value is more about opportunity and future upside than safe volume; he’s a prime example of a prospect-type goalie you monitor before you invest heavily.

Mackenzie Blackwood is holding a split-starter role with the Colorado Avalanche, buoyed by a stable deployment despite mixed results. His fantasy status hinges more on Colorado’s strength and consistent usage than elite performance, which keeps him in the viable but volatile tier.

On the downside, Sergei Bobrovsky is in a bad way for the Florida Panthers. The report frames his struggles as potentially signaling the end of his run as their clear-cut starter. Even if he keeps the nominal No. 1 label, fantasy managers care about saves, wins and ratios, not name value, and all three are under threat when a starter is trending down.

Fantasy Implications

Points-Only

In points-only formats, the equation is simple: chase volume on decent teams and avoid ratio grenades. Lyon checks both boxes right now. As the Sabres’ starting goalie, every missed add is potentially multiple wins and decent rate stats left on the wire. In these leagues, he should be treated as one of the top waiver priorities at the position while Luukkonen is out and as long as his play holds.

Merzlikins’ hot streak in Columbus makes him a classic points-only streamer: you’re grabbing him for immediate starts and potential wins, not banking on a full-season breakout. Use him to patch injury holes or back-to-backs, but be ready to pivot quickly if his level dips.

Tolopilo is mostly irrelevant in shallow points-only leagues right now but becomes interesting in deeper setups where any starting opportunity has value. When he starts, you roll him for the possibility of a win with the protection of Vancouver’s structure, but he’s not yet a set-and-forget option.

Blackwood’s split-starter environment in Colorado has appeal in points-only leagues that reward wins heavily. Even with uneven results, half of Colorado’s crease can be better than a full share in weaker markets. Think of him as a matchup-sensitive starter: useful if you can afford to sit him against elite opponents.

Bobrovsky is the risk you don’t need to take. In points formats, declining performance and potential erosion of his role crush his value. If there are competent alternatives on the wire, or if you can use the NHL Trade Analyzer to turn his name recognition into an upgrade, you should explore it.

Categories / Bangers

In multi-cat leagues, Lyon’s rise is even more impactful. More games started mean more shots faced, saves and potential wins, and his current performance suggests his ratios won’t sink you. He’s the type of goalie who can stabilize your GAA and SV% while giving you enough volume to compete in saves and wins on most weeks.

Merzlikins is volume-first. When he’s on a run, you grab the saves and hope the ratios are at least neutral. He’s particularly valuable if your league counts saves as a standalone category or has minimum start thresholds that are tough to hit. Just understand that he is more likely to be a swing piece in SV% and GAA than a guaranteed asset.

Tolopilo is a deeper-league play where extra starts matter. In categories leagues that weigh saves and wins, spot opportunities on a strong Vancouver team can be profitable, especially in weeks where he’s projected to face weaker opponents. Still, his sample is small, so avoid deploying him automatically in ratio-sensitive matchups.

Blackwood’s profile in Colorado screams streamer/3G in categories. On strong nights, you collect wins and decent saves; on bad ones, he can blow up your ratios. Managers with strong goaltending bases can treat him as a high-upside fourth goalie they roll only in cushy spots.

Bobrovsky becomes a liability in multi-cat formats because he can hurt you in three areas at once: fewer wins if his leash shortens, poor GAA, and mediocre SV%. Unless your league is extremely deep or you have no path to competent volume elsewhere, he’s trending toward a drop rather than a hold.

Dynasty / Keeper

Dynasty managers should separate short-term deployment from long-term talent. Lyon’s current run is a huge short-term win, but his long-term starting job security is far from guaranteed once Luukkonen returns. In keepers, he’s still more of a bridge solution than a franchise cornerstone, though he can help you win now.

Merzlikins sits in that middle tier for dynasty: valuable when hot, but not someone you must protect in limited-keeper formats. If he strings together sustained consistency, that outlook can change, but for now he’s more a production play than a long-term building block.

Tolopilo is where it gets interesting. The report frames him as a potential future piece, making him ideal for deeper dynasty benches. You don’t need to pay full price yet, but this is exactly the type of goalie you stash a year early in leagues with large farm systems, especially attached to an organization like Vancouver that can support respectable numbers.

Blackwood’s stable role in Colorado has short-term utility but limited dynasty appeal. He’s viable as a depth keeper in very deep formats, yet he’s unlikely to be the anchor of a contending build. In shallower keeper leagues, you’re generally better off cycling him for win-now skaters or a higher-upside young goalie.

Bobrovsky’s dynasty arrow is sharply down. The notion that his time as Florida’s top dog may be winding down means you should be actively looking to exit. Use tools like the NHL Trade Analyzer to gauge what’s still possible, but in most dynasties, you should be moving him before the bottom completely falls out.

Who to Add / Stream / Watch

Alex Lyon – Add (all but the shallowest leagues): Locked into the Sabres’ starting role for now and playing well; rare mid-season workhorse opportunity off the wire.
Elvis Merzlikins – Short-term stream: Riding a strong hot streak for Columbus; ideal for immediate starts while he’s carrying the Blue Jackets’ push.
Nikita Tolopilo – Watchlist / speculative add (dynasty, deep redraft): Getting meaningful looks in Vancouver and showing enough to warrant a stash in formats with room to wait.
Mackenzie Blackwood – Hold / matchup-based stream: Split-starter on a strong Colorado team; keep him for favorable matchups but don’t feel obligated to auto-start him.
Sergei Bobrovsky – Bench or drop in shallow leagues: Trending down with growing concern about his role in Florida; if you can trade him on name value, do it, otherwise cut bait where options exist.

Fantasy Takeaways

Prioritize Alex Lyon as a high-impact add while he carries the primary load in Buffalo.
Use Elvis Merzlikins as a hot-hand streamer, not a guaranteed rest-of-season foundation.
Stash or closely monitor Nikita Tolopilo in dynasty formats as a rising depth option in Vancouver.
Hold Mackenzie Blackwood for volume and team context, but deploy him selectively to protect your ratios.
Actively move off Sergei Bobrovsky where possible—via trade or drop—before his declining role does more damage to your categories.

Source: rotowire.com. See the original for full details.