Today’s NHL Lineups: Goalie Starts, PP1 Leans and Matchup Calls

With multiple games on tap, today is all about nailing your goalie decisions and squeezing value out of power-play exposure. Projected starters and likely deployment give us a clear roadmap for where to lean, where to fade, and where to take calculated risks in tight matchups.

What’s New & Why It Matters

The headline spots today revolve around crease battles and how they interact with team strength. The Florida Panthers are expected to roll with Sergei Bobrovsky against the New York Rangers, a matchup that should feature heavy shot volume and plenty of save opportunity. On the flip side, the Rangers’ skaters, including top-line winger Matthew Tkachuk’s counterpart on Florida and power-play quarterback Adam Fox on New York, shape the risk/reward profile for Bobrovsky managers.

In Carolina–Montreal, Frederik Andersen and Jakub Dobes are both projected to start. Andersen benefits from a strong defensive environment and win equity, while Dobes offers potential volume but faces a difficult opponent. That contrast is key: one is a safer category anchor, the other a higher-variance swing if you’re chasing saves or starts.

Tampa Bay’s likely use of Jonas Johansson against Nashville comes with more red flags. As a backup thrust into a tricky matchup, he’s flagged as a sit in most formats. Meanwhile, Jake Allen projects to get the nod for the New Jersey Devils versus Chicago, a spot where his path to a win and solid ratios is much clearer.

On the skater side, PP1 auditions and top-unit security matter. Matthew Tkachuk’s role on Florida’s top line and first power-play unit keeps him locked in as an automatic start. For the Rangers, Fox’s status as the primary power-play quarterback keeps him glued to fantasy lineups even in tougher matchups, as PP1 time can offset 5-on-5 risk.

Fantasy Implications

Points-Only

In points-only formats, you’re prioritizing win probability and power-play involvement over raw volume. Bobrovsky’s projected start for Florida against the Rangers is a green light in most leagues: even if the Rangers generate chances, Florida’s ability to control games gives him a strong shot at a decision and decent ratios. He belongs in your active lineup unless you’re somehow overloaded with elite alternatives.

Andersen is an even more straightforward call. Carolina’s structure in front of him and a matchup with Montreal make him one of the safest plays on the slate. If you’re deciding between Andersen and Dobes, the tie isn’t close—Andersen’s win equity and lower blow-up risk make him the clear points-only preference.

Dobes is more of a desperation start in points-only. The path to a big fantasy line would likely require a high-save win, which is a tougher parlay against a strong Hurricanes side. If you’re already ahead in goalie points or protecting ratios, you can justify sitting him. If you’re chasing and need a swing, he’s at least getting the crease, which has value in deeper leagues.

Allen versus Chicago is quietly one of the better points-only plays. The Devils should be able to drive play, and Allen’s expected workload plus realistic win odds put him firmly in the start tier. Johansson, by contrast, is a bench option unless your league is extremely deep; the combination of backup status and a challenging matchup against Nashville makes the downside too steep.

Categories / Bangers

Category managers need to think in terms of saves, save percentage, and wins, but also how goalie choices interact with your skater categories. Bobrovsky’s matchup with a dangerous Rangers offense could mean a busy night. If you’re chasing saves and can absorb some risk to your save percentage, he’s an excellent play. If you’re protecting delicate ratios in a head-to-head matchup, you might consider limiting exposure if you already have a safe start banked.

Andersen is the prototypical category stabilizer today. Carolina tends to limit high-danger chances, and against Montreal he carries both strong win odds and a good chance at a healthy save percentage. He’s a priority start in categories, especially if you’re trying to lock down GAA and SV%.

Dobes is a pure volume gamble. If your opponent has already banked a shutout or elite ratios, you may need to lean into variance and hope Dobes faces a barrage but holds his own. Otherwise, he’s more of a break-glass option. Johansson is the opposite of what you want when protecting ratios: limited track record, tough opponent, and low team insulation. He’s a recommended sit in bangers/categories unless you’re in a very deep format that counts sheer games started.

Allen’s expected start for New Jersey is a strong category play. Chicago’s offense can be contained, and the Devils’ skaters should support him with shot suppression and goal support. If you need both saves and a realistic win shot without taking on Johansson-level risk, Allen fits perfectly.

On the skater side, PP1 roles drive power-play points, shots, and in some cases hits. Matthew Tkachuk’s top-line and first-unit usage for Florida keeps him locked into every lineup; his combination of scoring, shots, and physical play is exactly what you want in bangers. Fox’s quarterback role on the Rangers’ power play gives him a high floor in assists and PPP, even if 5-on-5 is more difficult against Florida.

Dynasty / Keeper

Dynasty managers should view today as another data point in longer arcs. Andersen remains a high-end short-term piece, but his value is more win-now than future-focused. If you’re rebuilding, starts like today’s are opportunities to showcase him before exploring deals via tools like the NHL Trade Analyzer.

Dobes is more interesting from a long-term lens. Any start he gets against a strong opponent like Carolina is a valuable evaluation window. Even if the results are mixed, the fact that Montreal is giving him the crease matters for his trajectory. In deep keeper formats, you don’t necessarily need to start him today, but you should be monitoring usage and performance closely.

Johansson’s projected usage as a backup in a tough spot reinforces his profile as more of a depth or handcuff option than a future cornerstone. Unless his role changes meaningfully, he’s a fringe hold in only the deepest dynasty setups. Allen, meanwhile, is a steady veteran—useful for contenders needing stability now, but more of a short-term patch than a long-term solution.

For skaters, entrenched PP1 roles like Tkachuk’s and Fox’s remain dynasty gold. Even when matchups are tough, that level of deployment is what you build around. Any signs of younger players pushing for PP1 time on these teams in future slates would be immediate dynasty watchlist material.

Who to Add / Stream / Watch

Sergei Bobrovsky – Add/Start (standard leagues): Locked-in starter for Florida with strong win potential and high save upside against the Rangers.
Frederik Andersen – Add/Start (all formats): Carolina’s expected starter versus Montreal is one of the safest ratio and win plays on the slate.
Jakub Dobes – Watch/Spot start (deep leagues): Likely starter for Montreal; high-variance option if you’re chasing volume or need a desperation swing.
Jake Allen – Stream (standard/deep): Expected Devils starter in a favorable matchup with Chicago, offering a solid blend of saves and win equity.
Jonas Johansson – Sit/Deep-league only: Backup facing Nashville in a difficult spot; avoid unless you’re desperate for starts in very deep formats.
Matthew Tkachuk – Must-start: Florida’s top-line, PP1 winger should be locked into lineups for scoring and multi-category impact regardless of opponent.
Adam Fox – Must-start: Rangers’ PP1 quarterback remains an automatic play thanks to elite power-play involvement and assist upside.

Fantasy Takeaways

Prioritize Frederik Andersen and Sergei Bobrovsky as your safest goalie starts today, with strong win and ratio profiles.
Use Jakub Dobes only if you need a high-variance volume play; otherwise, protect your ratios and sit him.
Sit Jonas Johansson in most formats, as his backup role and tough matchup create more downside than upside.
Jake Allen is a strong streaming option thanks to a favorable matchup and realistic path to both saves and a win.
Lock in Matthew Tkachuk and Adam Fox for their secure PP1 roles, which can offset tougher even-strength matchups.

Source: NHL.com. See the original for full details.